The Negative Binomial Distribution Is Used To Mode ...

conjugate prior for negative binomial distribution

conjugate prior for negative binomial distribution - win

Why are conjugate prior distributions usually the beta or gamma distribution?

I am working through a textbook on statistical inference and working through the section about conjugate prior distributions. I noticed that for the majority of the distributions, all of the theorems given and proven use a beta (bernoulli, binomical, negative binomial, geometric) or gamma (piosson, normal, pareto, and gamma) prior. Even for a normal with known mean but unknown variance, the book uses a gamma rather than a normal.
Why do we use these two functions? Is there something more fundamental that I am missing?
submitted by noahjameslove to AskStatistics [link] [comments]

Some Questions Probability and ML

hello guys ,
I'm a new data science student. I'm having problem answering few questions . can you help me with these questions ?
1) what is the posterior distribution given that our model has the following prior x1,x2,x3…….xn~N(μ,σ0^2) and μ~N(m0,s0) with m0,s_0 and σ0^2 being known ?

2) Suppose we preform an analysis on binomial data with conjugate beta prior . Our prior has mean 0.4 and effective sample size 5. We then Observe trials with 6 Successes . That is the data mean is 0.6 . Let is θ^ denote the posterior mean for θ, the probability of success . which of the following is true about θ^* ?

i) θ^*≤0.4

ii) 0.4 < θ^*<0.5

iii) θ^* = 0.6

iv) 0.5 < θ^*<0.6

v) θ^*≥0.6

3) Which of the following is true for a prior to be improper ?
i) It does not integrate (or sum) to 1.
ii) The resulting prior predictive distribution is unlikely to have produced the data.
iii) It's use will never result in a posterior distribution which integrates (or sums) to 1.
iv) Its probability density function (PDF) can take on negative values

4) Given N set of data points, by using a linear classifier to classify this data points, what is the VC dimension for this classifier ?
i) 2^(N+1)
ii) 2
iii) 2(N+1)/N
iv) 2/N
v) 2^N

5). How do we define our prediction models to be generalized well enough to be applied to an unseen dataset? And if there is an outlier in the data does we need to keep it or remove it? Please justify your answer.
submitted by ML_learner95 to learnmachinelearning [link] [comments]

Bayesian posterior predictive distributions

Question:https://imgur.com/eCShDbL

Hey guys, sorry for posting a homework style question but I'm struggling to understand the theory here and there isn't much support at my college.
Part A:
I've used a conjugate prior of Gamma(0.001,0.001) to keep a vague but heavy tailed prior that covers the positive real axis.
Part B, C and D:
This is relatively straight forward as Gamma is a conjugate prior for a Poisson distribution and Jeffery's prior was not too difficult to work out.
Part E:
This is where I start to struggle, I've found my posterior predicitve distribution to be a Negative Binomial. When I use my Gamma posterior I get my parameters for the posterior predictive negative binomial to be NB(12.001,1.001). But the negative binomial doesn't take non integer values? I've looked around and there is a distribution called the positive-negative binomial distribution that takes non-integer values but this seems too abstract to be the answer.
Part F:
Again I'm having difficulty finding the posterior predicitve distribution for the difference |n1-n2|, we haven't been given data on the previous 6 month periods to use as observed data. Even if I use the data from O1 and O2 and scale them to 6 month periods I get a posterior predicitve of NB(0.001,0.49999). I still feel like I'm way off.

Any help with this would be great! It's frustrating to not fully understand what I'm doing as I can't find anything help on the course notes or online.
Thanks everyone who takes a look I really appreciate it!

submitted by too_many_bayes to AskStatistics [link] [comments]

conjugate prior for negative binomial distribution video

20 - Beta conjugate prior to Binomial and Bernoulli ... 17 - Conjugate priors - an introduction - YouTube Conjugate prior for a Binomial likelihood - YouTube Gamma distribution is Conjugate prior for Poisson ... 44 - Posterior predictive distribution a negative binomial for gamma prior to poisson likelihood 43 - Prior predictive distribution (a negative binomial) for gamma prior to poisson likelihood 2 Introduction to the Negative Binomial Distribution - YouTube 42 - Prior predictive distribution for Gamma prior to ... Prior and Posterior Distributions - YouTube Predictive Density: Binomial data

Posterior Distribution for Negative Binomial Parameter p Using a Group Invariant Prior ∗ B. Heller and M. Wang† Illinois Institute of Technology and the University of Chicago Abstract We obtain a noninformative prior measure for the p parameter of the negative bi-nomial distribution by use of a group theoretic method. Heretofore, group ... The Beta distribution is a conjugate prior for the Bernoulli, binomial, negative binomial and geometric distributions (seems like those are the distributions that involve success & failure). <Beta posterior>. Beta prior * Bernoulli likelihood → Beta posterior. Beta prior * Binomial likelihood → Beta posterior. Proving Beta prior distribution is conjugate to a negative binomial likelihood [closed] Ask Question Asked 3 years, 11 months ago. ... Show that the Beta prior is conjugate to a negative binomial likelihood, i.e., if $\mathbf{X} \theta \sim \mathrm{NegBin}(k,\theta) ... We saw last time that the beta distribution is a conjugate prior for the binomial distribution. This means that if the likelihood function is binomial and the prior distribution is beta then the posterior is also beta. 1. 18.05. class 15, Conjugate priors: Beta and normal, Spring 2014 2 6 Conjugate prior. If the likelihood function for an observation xis negative binomial(r;p) and pis distributed a priori as Beta(a;b) then the posterior distribution for pis Beta(a+r;b+x). Note that this is the same as having observed rsuccesses and xfailures with a binomial(r+x, p) likelihood. Bayesian Inference for the Negative Binomial Distribution via Polynomial Expansions Eric T' BRADLOW, Bruce G. S. HARDIE, and Peter S. FADER To date, Bayesian inferences for the negative binomial distribution (NBD) have relied ... use of a conjugate prior. prior distribution for p, (S), gives the joint distribution of the observed sample and p. (7) The ... The estimate of k will need to be calculated such that the negative binomial distribution will have an expected value that equals the claim count forecast. The value for k ... Negative Binomial for Count Data I have noticed that when estimating the parameters of a negative binomial distribution for describing count data, the MCMC chain can become extremely autocorrelated because the parameters are highly correlated. ... # Prior: r ~ dgamma(gSh,gRa) p ~ dbeta(1.001,1.001)} To date, Bayesian inferences for the negative binomial distribution (NBD) have relied on computationally intensive numerical methods (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) as it is thought that the posterior densities of interest are not amenable to closed-form integration. Question: The Negative Binomial Distribution Is Used To Model Scenarios In Which We Observe The Number Of Independent (success-fail) Trials Needed Before We See A Successful Trial. Suppose X1, X2, ..., Xn, Are A Random Sample From A Negative Binomial NegBin(n,) Distribution, Where N Is Known. Show That The Conjugate Prior Distribution Is A Beta Distribution. ...

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20 - Beta conjugate prior to Binomial and Bernoulli ...

Demonstration that the gamma distribution is the conjugate prior distribution for poisson likelihood functions.These short videos work through mathematical d... This video provides a derivation of the posterior predictive distribution - a negative binomial - for when there is a gamma prior to a Poisson likelihood. If you are interested in seeing more of ... Training on Prior and Posterior Distributions for CT 6 by Vamsidhar Ambatipudi This video provides a derivation of the prior predictive distribution - a negative binomial - for when there is a Gamma prior to a Poisson likelihood. If you... This video provides a short introduction to the concept of 'conjugate prior distributions'; covering its definition, examples and why we may choose to specif... Demonstration that the beta distribution is the conjugate prior for a binomial likelihood function.These short videos work through mathematical details used ... This video provides another derivation (using Bayes' rule) of the prior predictive distribution - a negative binomial - for when there is a Gamma prior to a Poisson likelihood. Assuming that a beta prior has been used, this example works through calculating the predictive density for new observations that are distributed according to a Binomial distribution. An introduction to the negative binomial distribution, a common discrete probability distribution. In this video I define the negative binomial distribution... This video sketches a short proof of the fact that a Beta distribution is conjugate to both Binomial and Bernoulli likelihoods.If you are interested in seein...

conjugate prior for negative binomial distribution

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